Director, Residential Research, Savills
Lucian Cook is one of the country’s most respected housing market commentators, having been a director in the Savills research team since 2007
Lucian Cook’s expert insight, acquired partly during his 12 years as Director of the Savills research team, focussed on the market backdrop, what’s driving it and the current 5 year forecast.
Beginning with statistics of the low annual house price growth, Lucian draws comparisons between the slow growth of last year, with that of the 2008 crash. Predicting that despite main political drivers such as Brexit and interest rate rises, the overall 5 year forecast suggests a 14.8% rise in annual house price growth.
Lucian highlights the support that Help to Buy has offered to the market and to first time buyers, citing the 12% rise of this sector of the market purchasing since the referendum. In contrast, home movers, cash buyers and buy to let purchases have all slowed since the political result in 2016. Lucian also depicts concerns with the Help to Buy scheme, particularly in London, with the average equity loan reaching £163,236.
Lucian closes with a closer look at the future of the market, noting that changes are needed before the certain end of Help to Buy in 2023. He also interestingly shares Savills’ findings on Housing Associations and they’re belief that government policy is a significant constraint in the delivery of Affordable Housing, along with lack of availability on land with this falling more into the control of the private housebuilder.